The sales pitch at that point was 70-grade power that could produce 30-plus homers, enough hit/approach qualities to unlock that power and an 80-grade arm that gave him a shot to stick behind the plate. It wasn't shocking because of Painter's 2022 velo spike that helped his stuff play even a notch higher than it did when he went No. Type: Rare hit/power upside from a teenager. 40 overall pick, where the Dodgers were fortunate to scoop him up with a slot bonus. Montgomery is a shortstop for now and will probably be fine for a while, but any team with an above-average defender at short will slide Montgomery over to third whether he's a 45 or 50 defensively at shortstop. Type: Lefty with above-average stuff and plus command. 15 overall in the 2020 draft. That's only 76 pro games in total, but he was a notable amateur prospect, signing for $1.5 million in 2020, and the tools are obvious. Owen Caissie, RF, Chicago Cubs Now you understand how a softer tossing high school kid that now has grown into league average fastball velocity can strike that many guys out and is expected to do it against big league hitters, too. In the end, they became the first two picks for the Padres, with Merrill signing for an underslot $1.8 million as the 27th overall pick; in the next round, Wood got $2.6 million, almost exactly the slot of Merrill's pick. He had an unlucky ball-in-play-related slow start in 2022 but still ended up with 21 homers and 50 stolen bases split across Double-A and Triple-A. As a prep draft prospect in 2019, Volpe was seen as a skills-over-tools type with good makeup that was a likely big leaguer, but without big upside in large part because of the power ceiling due to his size (listed at 5-foot-11, 180 pounds.). Veen was surprisingly not well-known as a tooled-up prep hitter in the Orlando, Florida, area until he announced himself on the national stage as a junior by taking Matt Allan deep on a 96 mph fastball while Allan was being heavily scouted as a first-round prospect. The next two players are catchers who either could be a first baseman with below average contact skills while the other likely never hits 20 homers. He fits the en vogue progressive mold of a hitter, a player with shorter arms to make contact easily but enough innate strength to create average power and avoid being totally one-dimensional. De La Cruz actually hit over .300 at both High-A and Double-A last year in big samples. The start of spring training is just around the corner, and that means it is time for an annual rite of passage ahead of the new MLB season: ranking the top 100 prospects in baseball. Cavalli showed athleticism, arm speed and aptitude to dream on in high school and early in his career at Oklahoma, then broke out leading up to No. Jonathan Ornelas, SS, Texas Rangers He'll be 22 years old when the minor league season starts with a chase rate that is a 30-grade ability. In two minor league seasons, he has answered those offensive questions by hitting .270 with a 10% walk rate and 28 homers in 655 plate appearances. The biggest reason the Padres are as good as they are is they don't need a ton of sterling scouting looks to identify and gamble on a potential star. Houston let Justin Verlander walk largely because of their rotation depth and Brown is probably their sixth best option now, so he will likely start the year in Triple-A then get another look later in 2023. Keith was an intriguing switch-hitting two-way prospect from a Mississippi high school in the 2020 draft, but you had to project to see a plus tool. Moreno falls short of the 65 FV tier because his raw power is merely average -- and given his style of hitting, it may play a notch below that in games: somewhere in the 8-15 homer area annually. His plus power and plus arm give him some margin for error, but his hit tool and pitch selection have been better than expected. PROSPECT RNK 1st POSITION RNK 1st Pass rusher Will Anderson is the safest pick in the draft and fills an obvious need for the Seahawks along their defensive line. Reminds me of: A Giants low-slot lefty starter with above average stuff and command. Salas was traded from the Marlins to the Twins with Pablo Lopez for Luis Arraez. When I asked sources about Carter, everyone mentioned his excellent approach -- and, sure enough, per minor league TrackMan data, his chase rate (the rate at which he swings at pitches outside of the strike zone) is basically tied for best amongst everyone on this list. Early in 2022, he was sitting 95-99 and hitting 100 mph, throwing mostly just his heater and his slider (take a look), but it's not like he forgot how to throw his curveball and changeup -- he was just running a 34% whiff rate throwing those two pitches 94% of the time. 30 overall in the 2020 draft. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout of the Los Angeles ESPN MLB Insider Kiley McDaniel launched his annual list of the Top 100 Major League Baseball Prospects today on ESPN+. Type: Late bloomer with above-average tools. There's a real shot he torches spring training, continues being ahead of schedule and grabs a spot in the big league lineup sooner than later in 2023, making me look a bit silly for hedging. Type: Explosive bat speed and big power potential, but it's early. Team-by-team top 10 lists: NL | AL . Hit: 35/55, Game Power: 35/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 45/45, Fielding: 45/50, Throwing: 60/60, Reminds me of: Christian Yelich, but at shortstop. Lesko was on the national scouting scene as early as his freshman year in high school, when he was sitting in the low-90s, mixing in a plus changeup and understandably putting up goofy numbers. Meyer was a personal favorite going back to his freshman year at Minnesota. The Padres targeted Susana, who popped up late in the international signing period with upper-90s velocity, after they had already spent all of their money, so they agreed to a $1.7 million bonus as long as he waited a year to sign in January 2022. His splitter and curveball are both at least average and Bradley's command projects to be above average. Type: Late-blooming midrotation righty with a great changeup. He eventually needed pre-draft Tommy John surgery and slid from a lock to go in the top five to 10 picks to being taken No. Scouts are still concerned that he isn't quite nimble enough behind the plate and his arm strength plays down due to execution, though a robot ump future would help. Both his contact ability and ability to stick at third base were open questions at draft time due to his 6-foot-5 frame. 15 overall. He is likely an offensive-oriented backup who can DH, play first base or offer depth at third until his defense gets to the level of a nailed-down starter. He has progressed well as a hitter, showing electric bat speed and feel to get to his plus raw power in games. Red Sox fans have seen two homegrown stars leave in recent years, but that won't happen a third time. Type: Advanced hit/approach with enough power to profile everyday. He's on the 40-man and will likely make his big league debut at some point in 2023 with an advanced feel for the game that suggests he'll do well in any role. Casas has held serve due to a sweet swing and an elite hit/approach/power combination that has continued to make him look like an above-average everyday player even while he has long shown little to no speed or defensive value. Arroyo got a promotion to High-A late in the year, hitting 14 homers and stealing 25 bases across both levels. Normally, teenage pitchers who are tall and/or throw this hard have flat-out bad command that is often a career-long weakness. Lewis isn't a slam dunk at the plate, either, as he has long had issues tinkering with his swing and dialing in his approach, but he is so naturally talented -- plus raw power, plus speed, feel for the game -- that he'll likely figure it out once he gets back onto the field. Flores is on a path to go from a completely anonymous junior college pitcher to a top-100 prospect making his big league debut in a three-year span. His pitch selection is among the best in the minors -- let's call it plus-plus -- he has had all-field plus power and a swing geared to getting to it for years. Over the past two seasons, he's hit 40 homers with a walk rate over 10% and strikeout rate under 20%, finishing 2022 at Triple-A. Like Peraza, Casas is likely to break camp with the big league team after a successful 2022 audition: I'd expect 20 homers and a strong on-base percentage in 2023. It was, to say the least, as Williams threw 115 sterling innings across High-A and Double-A last season while throwing 64% fastballs. USC's Caleb Williams the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner and North Carolina's Drake Maye, are franchise quarterbacks in waiting. Abel was a standout pitching prospect early in high school, standing 6-foot-5 and getting into the mid-90s with feel for a breaking ball and throwing strikes. Standings. Due to that risk and the low success rate of prep righties in general, he lasted until the 24th overall pick in the 2019 draft. Type: Projection righty with frontline potential. That hasn't happened, as he still has a lanky build and runs well, but is exclusively playing a corner outfield spot. Last year, Cowser finished the season strong: He hit four homers in 62 games in High-A to start the year, then hit 15 more in the other 76 games, split across Double-A and Triple-A. Late in the draft process last summer, ESPN college baseball analyst Chris Burke told me to run Rushing up my draft rankings and I didn't listen enough. 1? Type: Flashes three plus pitches, athleticism and starter command. Reminds me of: No perfect comp; more on this below. He has advanced feel in all aspects of the position, grading out above average as a defender, thrower, and athlete behind the plate with rare speed for the position. Pfaadt took even another step forward in 2022, dominating Double-A and Triple-A over 167 innings, with scouts raving about his feel and competitiveness while penciling him in as a mid-rotation fit as soon as the middle of 2023. Ceddanne Rafaela, CF, Boston Red Sox Bleis is still 18 years old for another month and has been drawing buzz for his past two summers, in the Dominican Summer League in 2021 and the domestic complex league in 2022. Which could work against him behind the plate, too -- even if he could stick, his bat may get to the big leagues fast enough that he won't be given time to finish becoming a big league catcher. He took a long-expected step forward at the plate last year, hitting 27 homers across Double-A and Triple-A and is now a bit above average at everything on a baseball field. Norby was a pop-up prospect at East Carolina in 2021, lacking big tools but proving he could hit with enough skill to project as a low-end regular. Davis is most likely a first baseman if catching doesn't work out. Lee is fine as a fill-in shortstop but fits well at third base, and he's a savant in the batter's box. But it's TBD if this is indicative of what he'll be going forward, or if he should be given some grace from a rocky 2022 season, and we assume he'll revert back to the style of hitter he was the previous five seasons I've scouted him. All three of these players have played only a little bit in Low-A but have plenty of upside so 2023 has a good shot at being their breakout year -- let's just be ahead of the curve, right? Did Pats make Mac Jones happy? The comp thing starts to bother me here, because Holliday, Merrill, Montgomery, Mayer and Henderson, all in the top 18, are all advanced hit/power combos at shortstop without great big league comps (unless you squint at their size, and say maybe Corey Seager). Baty is another prep hitter who has exceeded expectations despite being 19 years old on draft day. Its intent is to explain a player's ranking in a handful of simple words by saying they remind me of a current All-Star and have that as their high-risk upside, but you can also see why a lower-risk player might rank higher. Salas has plus bat control, a decent approach and solid-average raw power along with a good enough glove to maybe stick at shortstop, though he might also slide over to second base. Brown's changeup and command are both fringy but fine, while his 95 to 98 mph heater, slider and curveball are all plus and his control is about average. He has become more aggressive as his velocity has crept up to 90-93 mph with his plus command and plus ride that help it play up. Players. He's ranked this low because he has only shown this level of upside and performance for what amounted to half a season at Low-A while the others ahead give more certainty. That's plenty exciting, but the margin for error gets much smaller if he's first-base-only. ESPN's baseball experts released their list of top-100 players on Thursday, with 25 of 30 MLB teams represented. The Rays picked him 63rd overall and it has gone very well so far. The only real concern here is that if he loses a notch of athleticism and moves down the defensive spectrum, he's probably playing first base -- and would he then also lose some quickness at the plate? Type: Power-and-patience outfielder with limited pro experience. Play Ball Youth Baseball & Softball. He's also gifted in the baseball-specific skills of reads in center field and ability to stay compact and turn on an inside fastball. Wood likely loses a step or two and slides over to right field as he ages, but he's a decent center fielder with an outside shot to remain there. It all adds up to arguably more upside at draft time than even Byron Buxton and almost any other prep hitter in recent memory. 42 overall pick, mainly because of questions about his ability to make contact and stick at shortstop long term. He gives occasional plus run times, shows plus raw power, and is pretty passable defensively at shortstop -- though he fits better at second or third base. The added arm speed also improved both breaking balls, and the changeup is a plus to plus-plus weapon. He pitched half of 2022 in Triple-A and seems like the next above-average starting pitcher to come off the Rays' assembly line. Alcantara is a superlative athlete with plus raw power, plus speed once he gets going and an above-average arm. Marte, along with Arroyo above, were the two best prospects in Cincinnati's trade deadline haul for righty Luis Castillo. Michael Hall*, DT, Ohio State. He is an above-average runner with an above-average arm and glove at shortstop, a solid approach, and average raw power from the left side. He has plus power potential and solid-average tools across the board. Johan Rojas, CF, Philadelphia Phillies With the top free agents signed, here's where our experts think each team stands midway through the offseason. That vaulted him into 2022, when he excelled at High-A and Double-A, putting him on track to reach the majors in late 2023 or early 2024. To me, it's more likely that his peak physical years might be more like 23 to 25 than the typical 26 to 28. Merrill is probably the best recent example of why teams should consider taking a chance on a spring pop-up player with almost no history. As a 19-year-old in Low-A, Amador hit .292/.415/.445 with 15 homers, 26 stolen bases and more walks than strikeouts. The question is how often he'll put that whole package together and whether he is capable of being frontline-starter-level good after dialing things down to a level where he can also put up 180-plus innings. But you have to nitpick at this point of the list. 32 lingering post-draft questions: Will Lions have regrets? Type: 6-foot-5 likely third baseman with plus power and arm strength. At Louisville, Miller had some relief risk due to his delivery, but he had power stuff and went 29th overall in 2020. His stuff spiked almost immediately, with 3-4 added ticks of velo giving him four above-average pitches with the same strong command, though his fastball doesn't have the en vogue bat-missing shape to it. Neto popped up in the 2021 fall as a potential late first-round pick and followed up with an excellent spring at Campbell en route to going No. First base isn't the only option -- some scouts thought Soderstrom could play third at draft time, so don't rule out other corner spots. Can street race king Perez challenge Verstappen for the title? Here is who all 30 teams are most likely to trade in 2023. While his numbers weren't eye-popping, you have to remember he was among the youngest players in the league, hadn't played much during the year, and against the lowest competition of anyone in the AFL, but the tools and quality of his at-bats stood out. Bo was flat-out awful at Double-A in 2021, then torched the same level in 2022, earning promotions to Triple-A and the big leagues. He was dealt to Baltimore last summer as the headliner in a package for closer Jorge Lopez. The O's have back-to-back best prospects in baseball and their farm system is the class of the sport, thanks in large part to a really strong pipeline of scouting and developing hitters. Type: Hit-over-power, big-league-ready shortstop. The start of spring training is just around the corner, and that means it is time for an annual rite of passage ahead of the new MLB season: ranking the top 100 Play Ball Youth Baseball & Softball. Druw is the son of should-be Hall of Famer Andruw and was the top player on my draft board last summer when he went second overall behind Holliday. He's the Venezuelan-born younger brother of the major league utility infielder of the same name and signed for $20,000 as an undrafted free agent in 2020 out of an Arizona junior college. Mayer gets the slight nod as he's getting to his power (via exit velo, hard hit rate, barrels, etc.) He might be more of a solid starter than a star and could debut in late 2023 or early 2024. He might not be able to do all three of those, but even just two of the three means he ends up like Bichette, Adames, or Bogaerts, who last year put up 4.5, 4.7, and 6.1 WAR, respectively. Type: Plus power and patience from a probable catcher. It's pretty universal now to project Quero as an above-average offensive threat with power, patience and contact skills, but reviews on his defense differ. He is just an OK athlete, a fringy runner and a bit stiff defensively -- without the classic top-10 pick physique -- so you could imagine his athleticism slowly regressing, but that simply hasn't happened. Garcia is a plus hitter with an excellent approach and a steady glove at shortstop, but below-average in-game power. Type: Big league-ready hit-over-power shortstop. The easy comparison as a 6-3, lefty-hitting shortstop is Corey Seager, but I don't think Mayer has the frame or projectability to get to the Seager or Carlos Correa level of power while also playing shortstop. With the new ROY service time rules, the O's could and should put Rodriguez on the Opening Day roster, as he's probably their third-best starter right now. As a 20-year-old, he went from Double-A to the big leagues, hitting 15 homers and stealing 17 bases. Type: Shortstop with a chance to stick and have plus hit/power from the left side. That said, Elly consistently hits the ball hard and can leg out infield hits, so I wouldn't just assume he's a locked-in .240 hitter against big league pitching, either. ), switch-hitting shortstop with plus-plus speed, power, and arm strength! It isn't a long-term concern, but he had surgery on his non-throwing shoulder before getting in a pro game. 10. Amador gives plenty of margin for error in his projection as the base of his skills -- plus hitter, plus pitch selection, switch-hitter, plus runner, plus arm, solid-average defender at shortstop -- check a ton of boxes while his performance in 2022 was better than anyone could've expected. FV of a prospect who is big league ready maps to this pretty well: the top tier (65 FV this year) of prospects are projected to have multiple peak seasons of 4-to-5 WAR while the MVP winner is usually around 7-8 WAR. They're similar in offering long-term performance, tools and having successful MLB time under their belts. Type: Above average at everything except power. Naylor was a first-round pick out of a Canadian high school (in 2018), like his older brother and Guardians teammate Josh (in 2015). Jameson sits 96-98 -- sometimes reaching triple digits -- with solid fastball command and a plus slider that drew whiffs 40% of the time last year. Povich is still likely to give effective bulk innings, likely as a starter, maybe as soon as the second half of 2023. Here's the good: He is an 18-year-old plus-plus runner with explosive bat speed and power. Wood still swung and missed too often the summer after signing, but his approach clicked in 2022 to the point that he was done a disservice not being promoted to High-A by Washington after being the headliner in the Juan Soto trade (ahead of Robert Hassell and Jarlin Susana, both later on this list, and MacKenzie Gore, who has graduated but was on last year's list). Jones has longer arms that can lead to him being a little awkward at times, so projecting exactly what he'll be physically and offensively has a bit of an error bar. The Guardians took him 23rd overall, which was seen as a gamble at the time for the aforementioned reasons, but Williams was up to 101 mph with two plus breaking balls and showing starter command and a playable changeup, so the Cleveland pitching development machine seemed like a great landing spot.
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