As youll see below, the quest for accuracy is not necessarily achievable and may not even be the most valuable use of Pwin. Once you sign-up, you can add 4 additional team members within your EZGovOpps Portal. This button displays the currently selected search type. Proposal Training and Consulting Services, Proposal and Business Development Consulting Services, proposal training programs for dedicated proposal teams, proposal and business development consulting services, Association of Proposal Management Professionals. To calculate opportunity win rate, divide the number of closed won deals in a particular time period by the total number of opportunities you created in that period. Thats called a shot in the darkand that is exactly what you do when you respond to an RFP that you get out of the blue, where you didnt know about it or pursue it in the months and years prior to the RFP being released. Have two columns that provide the weighted Pwin for each methodology above for each opportunity. The price is very reasonable. All the actions the capture team takes should impact and inform the PWin calculation. The scope of the opportunity aligns with your companys strategic goals. New businessPwinrarely exceeds 40%. It is a tool to help you assess where you on on your opportunities at a given point in time. Select the cell that contains the result from step 2. In our example, several assumptions are made, specifically: Your pWin calculation process starts with a determination of capabilities and customer experience. In business development metrics, it is important to calculate an accurate Pwin so you can plan capture and proposal efforts accordingly. What were ultimately interested in is how much business is going to close per period and how much will turn to revenue. The gross proposal win rate is the simplest and most straight forward of all the proposal win rates you may calculate. SSEB buying habits, competitor teaming decisions, competitor product and/or service quality/availability, etc. In this formula your win rate is (a) (60%), your initial pWin is (b) (35%), and probability of loss is (c) (40%). You can update your choices at any time in your settings. The difference is that you are using a standardized set of criteria across opportunities. Decrease by %: Use the formula =A1* (1-B1). Become Shipley Certified, Copyright 2009-2023 Shipley Associates, All rights reserved, Terms of Use|Privacy Policy | Legal Notices, https://www.shipleywins.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/bd-pwin.mp4, Influencing Your Probability of Winning (Pwin) Webinar February 3, 2021, Probability of Win: Mystery and Magic Blog. But, most people use this approach or manual. Then, use a calculation in your spreadsheet to add that % for each opportunity based upon Phase/Stage. However, after conversation with the customer, we may find that they really dont like our approach and we revise that down to 25%. Copyright 2013 EZGovOpps.com. Pwin = Probability that your company will with the business based on discriminators, competition, or other factors. If we are doing capture right, PWin should increase over time. You assess the SSEBs buying habits as highly favorable for competitors to win contracts and therefore rate your probability of loss at only 40%. In business development metrics, it is important to calculate an accurate Pwin so you can plan capture and proposal efforts accordingly. Many proposal professionals talk about proposal win rates as if theres only one ratio to consider. So the calculation for this opportunitys pWin is: It is important to note that these variables are independent of each other, meaning that your probability of loss and initial pWin do not have to equal 100%. Its value is the awareness it creates among managers about how internal resources are being used. Shipley Associates expressly denies and user . For those opportunities that have a PWIN within your companys bid range, one of your next steps should be to complete a detailed competitive intelligence assessment going into the target internal gate. Phase/Stage Based. Its also a good way to measure your progress going forward. This time they like ourthoughtsand we adjust Technical SolutionPwinto 40%. We get on the road to success. They are quite different and surface useful ways of evaluating where you are on your opportunities. Calculate closed won needed to attain sales goal. This article explains how to calculate a percentage in Excel using various methods, such as formulas and formatting. In-house analysts provide contract history, incumbent info, KO updates, pricing information, and scope. Use the Excel Formula Coach to find the present value (loan amount) you can afford, based on a set monthly payment. button = document.getElementById('submit'); The tool is really the perfect combo of powerful and affordable. The purpose of these ratios is to raise awareness among managers about how effectively managers are utilizing their resources, and in particular, if theyre being wasted pursuing opportunities they have no realistic chance at winning. KPI-Driven Pursuit Assessment: This is a more standardized assessment for PWIN. Please try again later. It ultimately is used to determine 1) our competitiveness and 2) the actions we need to take to improve our chances of winning. The accuracy of your internal capabilities and customer relations assessments may increase or decrease either factor independent of the other. The File Cabinet allows solo or joint workflow for the assignment of priority levels, custom tags, management of mod alerts and team members, and importing opportunities from other platforms/sources, offering one cohesive environment for organizing and tracking opportunities. Some firms utilize a stage or phased based approach to calculated PWin. Second, if you are responding to an RFP where someone else is the incumbent, your win rate is going to be generally lower40% or lessbecause the buyer is going to be reluctant to replace their incumbent with you. With our support, our clients continue to beat their fiercest competitors, diversify their portfolio of customers, and achieve their financial goals. Key #2 - Fully Assessing the PWin. LinkedIn and 3rd parties use essential and non-essential cookies to provide, secure, analyze and improve our Services, and (except on the iOS app) to show you relevant ads (including professional and job ads) on and off LinkedIn. Determine the Right Metrics Determining the right metrics for your organization is the single most important step you will take. It basically says if you respond to 10 RFPs and you win 5, your win rate is 50%. 2. Note that if this test does not work out ona portfolio basis, then, your Phase/Stage %s are most likely not correct. In cell D2, subtract the end time from the start time by entering the formula =C2-B2, and then press Enter. You assess the SSEBs buying habits as highly favorable for competitors to win contracts and therefore rate your probability of loss at only 40%. Ive been impressed by the breadth and quality of contracting information [EZGovOpps] provides. Therefore, its important to also calculate some additional proposal win rates that provide insight at a more granular level. To assign points based on win/loss/tie results for a team, you can use a simple VLOOKUP formula, or a nested IF formula, as explained below. Who measueres their win rate on non-price attributes, vs. win rate on price. PK ! We will discuss pWin calculation through an example. }, Need assistance? The closer you get to these thresholds the higher your pWin: Current Customer, Current Offering 95%Current Customer, Non-Current Offering 75%Non-Current Customer, Current Offering 50%Non-Current Customer, Non-Current Offering 25%. That tells the bid writing team they are doing a simply outstanding job! No matter how we want to presentPwin, we need to look at some of the factors that affectPwin. It is used for 2 different purposes: a) by financially-oriented people in order to weight the financial value of a portfolio by the probability and b) by capture-oriented people to assess where you are on the opportunity. In R3 WinCenter (our capture and proposal management software for GovCon) we use a standard set of 9 KPIs (what we call Pursuit Progress Assessment KPIs). if (button === null) { I will demonstrate PWIN calculation through an example. Its purpose is to measure how discriminating a company is in determining which RFPs to pursue. The gross proposal win rate is the simplest and most straight forward of all the proposal win rates you may calculate. 2022-04-19 05:20:28 +0000, # Open up Excel and make it visible (actually you don't need to make it visible), # Get the answers to the Q1A and write them into the summary file, # Get the answers to the Q1B and write them into the summary file, # Select the path of the folder with all the files, # Create a new Excel file for the grading template, # Add the path of each file into the template, # Save the grading template without alerts. Said another way, Im looking backwards, trying to figure out whats not working so we can invest more resources to fix it. But magic can occur. A glance at a portion of the PWin Excel Model. In fact, there are many other ways you can calculate proposal win rates to provide more insight into how well you are doing. I believe measuring by proposal stage is the most useful measure as it gives the business manager an overview of the pipeline. The key is to note that regarding Pwin there are two different topics to consider: 1) calculating Pwin and 2) using Pwin. What I therefore prefer to use is the idea of yield. You categorize the opportunity by quadrantcurrent or non-current customer and current or non-current offeringand set maximum PWIN thresholds. button = document.getElementById('submit'); What we really need to know is whether the business is going to hit its numbers and what to do when forecast is below target. It can be customized to reflect your company's philosophy . But, people still have to determine the KPIs. Stage/Phase Based. Imagine you are standing in a field in the middle of the night. While its true that every RFP represents an opportunity, its also true that not every opportunity is a good opportunity. With that as the ceiling, you run the opportunity through a strategic assessment in the prospecting internal gates and give the opportunity an initial pWin of 35% based on strategic fit and competitive landscape. Members can see their dashboard populate live by selecting their criteria in the Pre-forecast My Profile. Put your opportunities in a spreadsheet to include name and value. The PWin calculator is designed and provided by EZGovOpps Benefit Team Member Scale2Market. Have your BD personnel enter the Pwin for each opportunity. This is precisely what the Short List Win Ratio and the Presentation Win Ratio are designed to capture. How you expressPwinis not important. First, if you are responding to an RFP in which you are the incumbent, your win rate is going to be generally higher60% or morebecause the buyer is going to be reluctant to replace you with another vendor. Do not be surprised whenthe BD reps Pwin calculation is on the low side. Dave authored the popular proposal book, Proposal Best Practices, is active with the Association of Proposal Management Professionals (APMP), and is a member of the APMP Speakers Bureau. Second, the buying habits of the source selection evaluation board (SSEB). Radical difference. And, Ill discuss different approaches for using Pwin to manage your pursuits based upon some customer portfolio work that we have done. Using these criteria and an objective assessmentofwhere we stand from the customers perspective can yield a rational analysis of where we really stand at any pointduringthe competition. Pwin is the probability that they will win a particular opportunity. The scope of the opportunity aligns with your companys current service offerings. Or use the AutoSum feature to quickly total a series of values without entering them manually in a formula. Total up the values of the two columns. Most organizations dont switch vendors very often. To try out the portfolio test above just do the following: You should find that a) on a portfolio basis they both even out and b) that there are opportunities with a wide variance. Pwinmust be accurate,not delusional. It is used to drive a % weighting of an opportunity for financial projection purposes. The advantage of the gross proposal win rate is it provides a single number that you can use to gauge your overall performance between reporting periods or related company divisions. Typically, the questions reflect some distinct aspects of their particular business. How can I fix this? This is about getting to a number. For managers who automatically respond to every RFP they receive, the RFP response ratio encourages them to invest time thinking about whether an individual RFP represents a legitimate opportunity that is winnable, or whether its a poor fit that will more than likely result in a failed bid. We talk again. And, their view of the situation is meaningful. 42395 Ryan Road, Suite 112-114 Brambleton, VA 20148, Copyright2023 Red Team Consulting | All Rights Reserved | Powered by, Why PWin is the Most Important Bid Decision Criteria. The customer is familiar with your companys products and/or services specific to this opportunity. This wouldnt have been possible without EZGovOpps. When using the pipeline to develop a forecast however, other measures are needed. The information is continuously updated; their support staff is knowledgeable and helpful; and their research team is top notch. However, in truth it is really the most arbitrary approach. When expanded it provides a list of search options that will switch the search inputs to match the current selection. In our example, several assumptions are made, specifically: Your PWIN calculation process starts with a determination of capabilities and customer experience. defining bid decision criteria for every bid, This is How to Write a Winning Past Performance, 10 Ways to Make an Impact as a Proposal Reviewer. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) awarded 17 companies on the six-year, $5 billion RMADA 2.0 contract. And we guess wrong, most of the time. The accuracy of your internal capabilities and customer relations assessments may increase or decrease either factor independent of the other. It has been sent. How many will be bid and lost? You raise a great point, David. R3 WinCenter, our software for GovCon capture & proposal management certainly allows you to calculate and compare Pwins. Enter your email address and we will send you password reset instructions. Over the last year, Ive worked with customers to do some analysis of their portfolios. Despite these advantages, its shortcoming is it doesnt provide much detail or insight about where you are doing well and where you arent. Meet the Team. Probability of win (Pwin) helps you track and monitor how likely you are to win an opportunity. Plus, they have task order SOWs from the GWACs now available as well! How many will slip? For example if a team has a record of 32-7-1 the winning percentage should be .813 (32.5/40). Support/ Another method is to conduct a Black Hat or SWOT analysis on the top competitors, and then you score yourself and them against the expected evaluation criteria. However, you will find a few opportunities that have wide variations. Select Accept to consent or Reject to decline non-essential cookies for this use. For financial reporting we are going to use an analytical approach the Phase/Stage-Based, the KPI-based, or the Question-based. In order to calculate the opportunity pWin, you can use the following formula: a*b/(a*b+c*(1-b)). As you move into the pursuit internal gate, you need to include two additional factors to make a pWin determination that will influence the bid/no-bid decision for this opportunity. Your company has a 60% win rate for the quadrant into which this opportunity falls. Believe it or not, there is a sound, objective approach to making bid decisions. By Wall Street Prep 1 Worksheets CATEGORIES Mergers & Acquisitions The scope of the opportunity aligns with your companys current service offerings. GovWin IQ helps make this all happen . About/ David Seibert is a professional salesperson and consultant for businesses that respond to formal procurements in non-federal markets. The Pwin Calculator for Platinum subscribers is an opportunity analysis decision matrix to help your business development team establish and use a vetted, consistent and disciplined approach to determining objectively which opportunities your company should pursue. In this video,Brad Douglas, Executive Vice President of Shipleys Global Operations and APMP Fellow, describes common errors companies make when tracking Pwin. For example, it may be common in some markets or industries for buyers to award a contract based solely on the proposal you submit. How you express Pwin is not important. Your pWin calculation process starts with a determination of capabilities and customer experience. Often, a Pwin at a point may point out the need to take action. The Affordable Force in Government Market Intelligence. The scoring approach goes something like this: Home Team Pwin is 69/ (69+75+58) = .34 (34 percent) Competitor 1 Pwin is 75/ (69+75+58) = .37 (37 percent) But truthful. You categorize the opportunity by quadrantcurrent or non-current customer and current or non-current offeringand set maximum pWin thresholds. On the Home tab, click . How many will progress to the next stage? After you create a formula, you can copy it . You could also use any, some, or all of the above in a weighted combination to derive a perfect methodology. Customers have choices. Fascinating discussion, Dave, I think there is an aspect that would also be good to include with your list. if (button !== null) { The customer has given no indication that there are performance issues with the incumbent. Contact Us/ In fact, you might feel that they are actually giving you a better sense of what would be going on in your portfolio and in each opportunity. Thats about as high as it ever gets. : Need assistance? These are your two weighted portfolio values based upon 2 different Pwin approaches. If we approachPwinconservatively, we force ourselves to think about what we can do to make that 40% solid while others fade away to 25% or less through their own folly. First, your companys win rate for the relevant quadrant. This ensures that you are consistently aligning the decision-making process for a $1,000 and a $100 billion opportunity to your companys strategic goals. var button = document.getElementById('m_signup'); This final post in my Business Development Pipeline series combines each of the previous posts on validating the pipeline, internal gates, and customer relations to calculate your opportunity win probability, PWIN. Drive historical/forecasting analysis for multiple agencies/offices simultaneously, allowing a strategic focus on which agencies target products or services your firm specializes in. When you look at particular opportunities in the portfolio you see that there is very little variation between the manual Pwin and a not manual calculation. Over our 19+ years, weve helped thousands of companies achieve their growth targets with our full lifecycle business development, capture, proposal development, pricing, and training services. If weareobjective and recognize that we have to purge our biases from thePwincalculation,we can position ourselves to create andexecute the right strategies that will improve ourstandingwith the customer over time. Sowe have corrected with knowledge and taken a conservative view that allows us to think through how to improve our position vs fooling ourselves. []. Experience EZGovOpps GOLD, free for 5 days.Start your free trial today! Sostart there,assuming you can only go down if you fail to have the right strategy. } This is the most common approach, particularly in commercial business using CRMs. However, take another moment and look at the other screenshots of types of reports on that same page. In this example, if you increase probability of loss based on the SSEB assessment by 40%, then your opportunity PWIN drops to 30%. The result is -3.00%, which is the percentage of decrease in earnings. Companies that respond to every RFP they receive are wasting resources. The team at EZGovOpps is very supportive and provides a lot of value and ongoing support its the best price in the market for this type of information. People should know their business. In general, the Pwin calculation is used for projecting revenue. GSAs OASIS Small Business (OASIS SB) professional services multi-agency contract vehicle is finally moving ahead after settling the final outstanding protests. Why? At the end of the day all of this work is about driving more Federal Contract wins. The customer seems amenable to a new service and/or product provider. You then weight the KPIs and use an algorithm to determine the Pwin. Learn more in our Cookie Policy. This methodology lacks any data analytics and quantitative robustness, and is simply inappropriate. If our goal is to improve predictability, and ultimately I think that should be our goal, I think we need to put more effort into determining which performance measures more accurately predict future performance. This Excel loan calculator template makes it easy to enter the interest rate, loan amount, and loan period, and see what your monthly principal and interest payments will be. How many prospects will lead to biddable opportunities? You have an official Daisy Red Ryder BB gun, and 15 yards away, hidden in the inky darkness of night, there is a metal can that you have to shoot off a log. Easily input AQL, MQL, SQL, and SAL data by time period and stage. The proposal win rates presented in this article do not represent a complete list. The magic reveals our weaknesses based on accurate representations of where we stand. Does your pwin estimation pass the "So what?" test? If youre building a team and you have positions you cant fill, you need to use SMA Talent on Demand (TOD)! There was an error trying to send your message. When I wrote this, my intent wasnt looking at win rates as a forecast tool but as a performance measurement tool to see, historically, where weve been doing well and where we havent. So how do we fail to use the customers perspective? RMADA 2.0 is the second iteration of the Research, Measurement, Assessment, Design and Analysis IDIQ for data and research services to support EZGovOpps is recognized as the nations leader in providing an affordable web-based business intelligence tool for government contractors. For example, our initial assessment ofPwinin the area of Technical Solution might be 60%. Within My Profile, a user can specify contract value range, alert timeframes, keywords, NAICS codes, agency, set-asides, and many other criteria. Keep up with the latest in GovCon news, events, and opportunities. And I think worth discussing further. What was the result? Click here to learn more about R3 WinCenter and see an on demand video of WinCenter in action. 2. And note, that you are still relying on people to make correct answers to the questions. For example, if you make it to the short list 80% of the time, then your proposal development process is working pretty well. In this video, Brad Douglas, Executive Vice President of Shipley's Global Operations and APMP Fellow, describes . WinCenter will help you see the need and do something about it. Red Team Consulting, a well-recognized and established firm, published an article (published January 14th, 2019, retrieved November 25, 2019) listing the following components for consideration in calculating [], [] Red Team Consulting Jeff Leitner authored Why PWin is the Most Important Bid Decision Criteria [], [] If your company is interested in pursuing the VA T4NG IDIQ, dont hesitate to contact Red Team. PWin is the most important indicator within our bid decision criteria. The result is -0.03000. The problem with using the gross proposal win rate to gauge your performance is it doesnt provide insight into how well youre doing at each step within the process. Having carefully assessed PWin will allow you to make the best decisions when you are faced with the need to prioritize. So, I captured 3 ways of calculating Pwin for the same portfolio. Influencing Probability of Winning Working - Shipley Associates Im glad you enjoyed it. For instance, if a new competitor jumps into the ring in the later phases of the process, your PWIN score should decrease. In summary, with Pwin we can actually serve two objectives: Financial Projections and Pursuit Management. If youre not already familiar with OASIS SB and the latest on-ramp, please take a look at our previous by ezgov | Sep 19, 2019 | Programs / GWACs / IDIQs. ,
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